Oscars: Supporting Actor – Could ‘Hulk’ Defeat ‘Iron Man’ or Will Ken Avenge the Snub of His ‘Barbie?’

Oscars: Supporting Actor – Could ‘Hulk’ Defeat ‘Iron Man’ or Will Ken Avenge the Snub of His ‘Barbie?’

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown as Cliff Ellison in “American Fiction” Claire Folger / MGM / Orion

Weekly Commentary (Updated Jan. 25, 2024): After various showings for the two “Poor Things” men — Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo — at televised ceremonies, it was the latter who secured enough votes for his fourth Oscar nod for his turn as a sleazy lawyer in Yorgos Lanthimos’ sci-fi fantasy. With the help of his former bids for “The Kids Are All Right” (2010), “Foxcatcher” (2014) and “Spotlight” (2015), he’s now tied for the actor with the most nominations in this category’s history alongside seven legendary thespians: Walter Brennan, Jeff Bridges, Robert Duvall, Arthur Kennedy, Jack Nicholson, Al Pacino and Claude Rains. Only Kennedy and Rains could never pick up trophies in any acting category.

While Ruffalo is a well-respected actor, he also has the most limited opportunities to pick up the momentum of his four competitors, as he’s not nominated at the BAFTA or SAG Awards. In the modern era, only two people have won acting Oscars without a nomination from both major organizations: Marcia Gay Harden for “Pollock” (2000) and Regina King for “If Beale Street Could Talk” (2018). The former “Incredible Hulk” actor will hope his film, which garnered 11 nominations, can pick up momentum that could bring him into the fold.

Another Marvel Studios hero, Robert Downey Jr. has been coasting to multiple stages for his acclaimed work as the slimy politician in Christopher Nolan’s best picture frontrunner “Oppenheimer,” which scored a leading nom tally with 13. With CCA and Globes in hand, SAG could wrap it up for the actor, no matter what happens at the BAFTA Awards (but he’s likely to pick that one up, too). At that point, his win will be nearly cemented, as shown in history. No supporting actor has lost an Oscar when walking in with BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe, and SAG prizes.

And then there’s Ken. Ryan Gosling’s scene-stealing turn in “Barbie” has been a fan-favorite, and with the social media firestorm that’s pulsating with the snubs of director Greta Gerwig and lead actress Margot Robbie (who are still individually nominated in adapted screenplay and best picture), that could rally support, especially in the mass populist SAG community. I’d watch out for a Gosling upset at SAG. That could make this race even more attractive to follow.

While ecstatic for the inclusions of Sterling K. Brown for “American Fiction” (long overdue in this realm) and Robert DeNiro for “Killers of the Flower Moon” (who I’d argue would be winning if he hadn’t won two Oscars already), their mentions seem to be the reward. But a lot can change over the next seven weeks.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.


And the Nominees Are:



Other Eligiblities From 2023 (Alphabetized by Studio)**


** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.

2022 category winner: Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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