Oscars Predictions: ‘Oppenheimer’ Cements Frontrunner Status; ‘The Holdovers’ Leads in Three Races; ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ Surges

Oscars Predictions: ‘Oppenheimer’ Cements Frontrunner Status; ‘The Holdovers’ Leads in Three Races; ‘Anatomy of a Fall’ Surges


Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:


Weekly Commentary (Updated Jan. 8, 2024): The Palm Springs International Film Festival’s annual gala recognizing some of the year’s finest achievements in cinema saw several honorees let their guards down, allowing the tear ducts to flow. Contenders such as Billie Eilish, Danielle Brooks, Paul Giamatti, Colman Domingo, Jeffrey Wright and Carey Mulligan were among the standouts who shined bright.

The Golden Globes entered the fray, cementing Christopher Nolan’s historical drama “Oppenheimer” as the Oscar frontrunner. With it, Robert Downey Jr. takes the top spot in supporting actor for the first time since Oct. while Cillian Murphy jumps to the No. 2 slot in best actor.

After winning the Globe for actor (comedy), Paul Giamatti’s work in “The Holdovers” overtakes Bradley Cooper in “Maestro” on the Oscar rankings. Focus Features’ holiday dramedy continues to rise and is in the top spot in three categories, including supporting actress (Da’Vine Joy Randolph) and original screenplay (David Hemingson). Could a stealth best picture winner be among us?

Next are the Governors Awards on Tuesday, before the SAG and DGA nominations are revealed on Wednesday.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10, 2024.



Leave a Reply