Oscars Predictions: State of the Race After Shortlists and the Upcoming Holiday Break

Oscars Predictions: State of the Race After Shortlists and the Upcoming Holiday Break


Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:


Weekly Commentary (Updated Dec. 22, 2023): The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has announced the shortlists in 10 categories for the upcoming 96th Oscars ceremony. Overall, Greta Gerwig’s meta-comedy “Barbie” had the most mentions with five including sound, original song for its three submissions. “Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Society of the Snow” also showed strength, with four mentions apiece across four separate categories.

The holiday break is upon us, and voters will fly off to their favorite getaways to catch up on the films they missed from 2023.

Two Awards Circuit Columns this week cover the movies that play well at home and the number of comedies in the awards race.

Films picking up steam: “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” are beginning to pull away from the pack with “Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Poor Things” staying on their tails. “American Fiction,” “The Holdovers” and “Maestro” continue to make noise, and will be looking to close the gap in January at various awards ceremonies and events.

Biggest gain this week: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” which, after making the shortlist for visual effects, could be angling to make history and become the first animated feature winner in the category. That possible notoriety was enough to put it back in the projected 10 best picture nominees despite missing the Critics Choice Awards’ 10 best movies.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10, 2024.



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