Oscars Predictions: Best Visual Effects – ‘Rebel Moon’ and ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Make the Top 20, Will They Make the Final Five?

Oscars Predictions: Best Visual Effects – ‘Rebel Moon’ and ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Make the Top 20, Will They Make the Final Five?

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Achievement in Visual Effects

“Napoleon” Sony Pictures

Weekly Commentary (Updated Dec. 7, 2023): The top 20 finalists for the visual effects Oscar have been notified they have made it to the next round of voting. With Oscars shortlist voting opens on Thursday, Dec. 14, in eight categories, Variety has learned exclusively through multiple sources, the 20 movies include films such as Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie,” Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things,” Zack Snyder’s “Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire” and the lone animated feature contender, “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” have been named.

The finalists are full of IP and big-budget superhero spectacles including three from Marvel Studios — “Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania,” “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” and “The Marvels,” alongside three Warner Bros titles — “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom,” “Barbie” and “Wonka.”

The Visual Effects Branch has always been friendly to blockbusters and consumer-facing franchises shown with past winners such as “Avatar: The Way of Water” (2022), “Dune” (2021), “Tenet” (2020), “Blade Runner 2049” (2017) and “The Jungle Book” (2016).

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The submission deadline for general categories is Nov. 15, 2023. The preliminary shortlist for eight categories is from Dec. 14-18, with the results announcement dropping on Dec. 21. The Oscar nomination period will run from Jan. 11-16, 2024, with the official nominees named on Jan. 23.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

***The list below is not final and will be updated throughout the awards season.


And the Predicted Nominees Are:


  1. The Creator” (20th Century Studios) — Jay Cooper, Ian Comley (visual effects supervisors), Andrew Roberts (on set visual effects supervisor), Neil Corbould (supervising special effects supervisor)
  2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios) — Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams (visual effects supervisor), Dan Sudick (special effects supervisor)
  3. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” (Paramount Pictures) — Gary Brozenich, Richard Little, Matt Aitken (visual effects supervisors), J.D. Schwalm (special effects supervisor)
  4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Michael Lasker, Alan Hawkins, Bret St. Clair, Pav Grochola
  5. Rebel Moon: Part One – A Child of Fire” (Netflix) — To be added

Next in Line


  1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Andrew Whitehurst (visual effects supervisor), Kathy Siegel (visual effects supervisor), Robert Weaver (ILM visual effects supervisor), Alistair Williams (special effects supervisor)
  2. Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
  3. The Marvels” (Marvel Studios) — To be added
  4. Society of the Snow” (Netflix) — To be added
  5. Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Simon Hughes (creative director)

Other Top-Tier Possibilities


  1. Godzilla: Minus One” (Toho) — To be added
  2. Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
  3. Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Glen Pratt, Francois Dumoulin, Viktor Muller, Mark Holt
  4. Dungeons & Dragons” (Paramount Pictures) — Ben Snow, Scott Benza, Khalid Almeerani, Sam Conway
  5. Wonka” (Warner Bros.) — Graham Page, Robert Allman, Dale Newton, Hayley Williams
  6. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures) — Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland, Neil Corbould
  7. Nyad” (Netflix) — Jake Braver, R. Christopher White, Mohsen Mousavi, Dann Tarmy
  8. The Boys in the Boat” (Amazon MGM Studios) — To be added
  9. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios) — To be added
  10. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (Warner Bros.) — To be added

Out of the Running (Alphabetized by Studio)**


  • Beau is Afraid” (A24)
  • Dream Scenario” (A24)
  • The Iron Claw” (A24)
  • Past Lives” (A24)
  • Priscilla” (A24)
  • Showing Up” (A24)
  • When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)
  • You Hurt My Feelings” (A24)
  • The Zone of Interest” (A24)
  • Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)
  • The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)
  • Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)
  • Foe” (Amazon MGM Studios) — Jason Hawkins (VFX supervisor), Matthew Chance (head of 2D), Jordan McInnes (CG supervisor and rigging TD), Chris Gardner (FX TD)
  • Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)
  • Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)
  • Flora and Son” (Apple Original Films)
  • Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
  • Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)
  • Across the River and Into the Trees” (Bleecker Street)
  • Golda” (Bleecker Street)
  • The Origin” (Bleecker Street)
  • Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken” (DreamWorks Animation)
  • Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation)
  • Asteroid City” (Focus Features)
  • Every Body” (Focus Features)
  • The Holdovers” (Focus Features)
  • A Thousand and One” (Focus Features)
  • The Boy and the Heron” (GKids)
  • BlackBerry” (IFC Films)
  • Monica” (IFC Films)
  • R.M.N.” (IFC Films)
  • The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)
  • Migration” (Illumination)
  • Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)
  • The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination)
  • Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)
  • The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)
  • John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate)
  • Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)
  • Baby Ruby” (Magnet Releasing)
  • Little Richard: I Am Everything” (Magnolia Pictures)
  • Master Gardener” (Magnolia Pictures)
  • The Stones and Brian Jones” (Magnolia Pictures)
  • Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quanumania” (Marvel Studios)
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios) — Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams (visual effects supervisor), Dan Sudick (special effects supervisor)
  • The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)
  • Bottoms” (MGM/Orion) — Doug Stewart (visual effects supervisor)
  • The Boys in the Boat” (MGM) — Matt Kasmir (VFX supervisor)
  • Creed III” (MGM)
  • Landscape with Invisible Hand” (MGM)
  • American Fiction” (MGM)
  • The Eternal Memory” (MTV Documentary Films)
  • The Delinquents” (Mubi)
  • Fallen Leaves” (Mubi)
  • The Settlers” (Mubi)
  • Unclenching the Fists” (Mubi)
  • Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon)
  • Eileen” (Neon)
  • Ferrari” (Neon)
  • How to Blow Up a Pipeline” (Neon)
  • La Chimera” (Neon)
  • Longlegs” (Neon)
  • Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon)
  • Origin” (Neon)
  • Perfect Days” (Neon)
  • Robot Dreams” (Neon)
  • The Royal Hotel” (Neon)
  • American Symphony” (Netflix)
  • Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” (Netflix)
  • The Deepest Breath” (Netflix)
  • El Conde” (Netflix)
  • Fair Play” (Netflix)
  • The Killer” (Netflix)
  • Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)
  • Leo” (Netflix)
  • May December” (Netflix)
  • Maestro” (Netflix)
  • The Magician’s Elephant” (Netflix)
  • Miraculous: Ladybug & Cat Noir: The Movie” (Netflix)
  • The Monkey King” (Netflix)
  • Nimona” (Netflix)
  • Nyad” (Netflix)
  • Pain Hustlers” (Netflix)
  • Rebel Moon” (Netflix)
  • Reptile” (Netflix)
  • Rustin” (Netflix)
  • Society of the Snow” (Netflix)
  • Stamped from the Beginning” (Netflix)
  • Dungeons & Dragons” (Paramount Pictures) — Ben Snow, Scott Benza, Khalid Almeerani, Sam Conway
  • Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures) — Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland (visual effects supervisors), Neil Corbould (special effects supervisor)
  • Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures) — Matthieu Rouxel (visual effects supervisor), Paul-Etienne Bourde (visual effects department supervisor), Giai Wong (visual effects department lead)
  • Transformers: Rise of the Beasts” (Paramount Pictures) — Gary Brozenich, Richard Little, Matt Aitken (visual effects supervisors), J.D. Schwalm (special effects supervisor)
  • Elemental” (Pixar) — Sanjay Bakshi (visual effects supervisor), Stephen Marshall, Jon Reisch (effects supervisors), Junyi Ling (character supervisor)
  • Black Ice” (Roadside Attractions)
  • Camp Hideout” (Roadside Attractions)
  • Dreamin’ Wild” (Roadside Attractions)
  • The Last Rider” (Roadside Attractions)
  • Moving On” (Roadside Attractions)
  • The Pod Generation” (Roadside Attractions/Vertical Entertainment)
  • Somewhere in Queens” (Roadside Attractions)
  • All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Magazine Dreams” (Searchlight Pictures) **
  • Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Simon Hughes (creative director)
  • Theater Camp” (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)
  • The Equalizer 3” (Sony Pictures)
  • Gran Turismo” (Sony Pictures) — To be added
  • Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
  • Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • The Miracle Club” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Shadya” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Shortcomings” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • The Teachers’ Lounge” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • They Shot the Piano Player” (Sony Pictures Classics)
  • Cocaine Bear” (Universal Pictures)
  • The Exorcist: Believer” (Universal Pictures)
  • Fast X” (Universal Pictures)
  • M3gan” (Universal Pictures)
  • Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)
  • She Came to Me” (Vertical Entertainment)
  • Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (Warner Bros.)
  • Barbie” (Warner Bros.)
  • Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)
  • The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)
  • The Flash” (Warner Bros.)
  • Wonka” (Warner Bros.)
  • Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” (Walt Disney Pictures)
  • The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)
  • Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures)

2022 category winner: “Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios) — Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett

** indicates an unconfirmed release date in 2023 or could campaign in the lead or supporting categories. All release dates are subject to change.

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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